Shanahan killed PM Rudd, says Gillies-Smith

Rudd’s demise traced to The Australian’s focus on mining row 26/7/2010

Public Affairs consultant Michael Gillies Smith (pic right) says the demise of Prime Minister Rudd was driven by the key journalists and Editors at The Australian.

Kevin Rudd’s shock demise as Labor leader and Prime Minister can be traced to a relentless front page focus by The Australian newspaper on the mining tax row, analysis of the nation’s key print media shows.

Gillies Smith Public Affairs (www.gilliessmith.com) is surveying the front page leads of Australia’s most influential newspapers, The Australian, the Sydney Morning Herald, the Daily Telegraph, The Age and the Herald Sun. These leads not only shape the thoughts, feelings and knowledge of millions of readers, they shape the nation’s daily news, the public agenda and events. The authors of these leads are, arguably, Australia’s most influential journalists. Gillies Smith is surveying these leads to find out (a) who is writing the most leads and, therefore, who are Australia’s most influential journalists and (b) what are the top issues and what effect is this front page coverage having on the political, policy and social landscape. The results for June are:

Journo of the Month: June
1. Dennis Shanahan, The Australian political editor: 14 leads
2. Phillip Coorey, Sydney Morning Herald chief political correspondent: 6 leads
3. Matthew Franklin, The Australian chief political correspondent: 5 leads
4. Andrew Clennell, Daily Telegraph state political editor: 5 leads
5. Michelle Grattan, The Age political editor/Sean Nicholls, Sydney Morning Herald: 4 leads.

Issue of the Month: June
1. Mining tax row: 20 leads (led by The Australian with 16 of the 20)
2. Sport/errant sport identities: 17 leads (led by the Herald Sun and Daily Telegraph with 15 of the 17)
3. “Social decay”: (stories contributing to a picture of increasing, unchecked violence and lawlessness, unsafe streets and roads, a crumbling justice and sentencing system): 14 leads (led by the Herald Sun and Daily Telegraph with 12 of the 14).

“The Australian ran 12 front page leads on the mining row in 13 days,” said Michael Gillies Smith, director of Gillies Smith Public Affairs. “Such a run of Page 1 leads on just one issue is rare. By comparison, The Age and the SMH each ran just one front page lead on the issue during this time. The Herald Sun and Daily Telegraph ran no front page leads on the mining tax row in June.

“The Australian’s front page coverage stoked the mining industry’s stand, fuelled the Opposition and parliament question time and armed TV, radio and print journalists across the country with a barrage of questions. It became a frenzy. Such was the heat – media and political – generated by The Australian and Dennis Shanahan that by Saturday June 12 the story, in The Australian, had become mining row/Rudd leadership. By Monday June 14 it had morphed into Rudd leadership/mining row.

“The Australian’s coverage generated its own front page news. By Saturday June 19, Dennis Shanahan splashed on Page 1 that Rudd may be dumped within days if he did not resolve the mining row. Few believed it would happen. Labor was ahead in the polls 52-48 and Rudd was still in his first term. But that’s exactly what happened. Four days later, on June 23, Gillard, backed by an enthusiastic majority of Labor MPs who were fed up with Rudd’s autocratic style, showed Rudd her fangs. It was no contest. Rudd, virtually friendless, was powerless. He didn’t even contest the leadership ballot. Overnight, Australia’s political landscape changed. Rudd the PM was now a backbencher and Australia had a new PM, Gillard.

“The Australian, led by Dennis Shanahan, was highly influential in Rudd’s demise. The message here for politicians is: Beware The Australian and Dennis Shanahan, especially if you’re going to pick a fight with big business.

“Rudd is responsible for his own downfall. But The Australian speeded it up.”

Timeline: The Australian’s front page focus on the mining tax row in June
June 2-9: The Australian leads with the mining tax row for seven consecutive editions from June 2 to 9
June 11-16: After just one day’s break, The Australian leads with the mining tax row for five consecutive editions from June 11 to 16
June 12: The Australian’s front page series morphs into mining row/Rudd leadership
June 14: The Australian’s front page series becomes Rudd leadership/mining row. The Daily Telegraph joins in, saying on its front page that ALP powerbrokers are ready to back Gillard as leader
June 19: The Australian breaks the news that Rudd is just days from being dumped unless he solves the row with the mining industry
June 23, AM: The Sydney Morning Herald breaks the news that Rudd has been asking MPs if they still support him as leader
June 23, PM: Gillard tells Rudd ‘game on’
June 24: Rudd surrenders. Labor Party endorses Gillard as leader and Prime Minister.

Other issues arising from the June survey
• Bank fees/alleged rip offs are making a comeback as a front page issue, particularly with the state-based broadsheets, The Age and the SMH.

The bigger picture
“There is a news market for a national daily left-of-centre broadsheet in competition with The Australian. The state-based broadsheets are under pressure/obliged to cover State Government issues such as problems and concerns with major projects, infrastructure and services. For example, The Age, in June, ran a number of Page 1 leads on the Brumby Government’s $2 billion ‘food bowl’ irrigation project, local population pressures on state planning, urban growth and services, and Brumby’s planned anti corruption commission. The Australian, being a national paper, is not under this pressure/obligation. There is something of a left-of-centre vacuum at the national daily broadsheet level.